Oregon stands to lose more than $15 billion in federal funding for health care, food assistance and other purposes in coming years, under the sweeping spending bill congressional Republicans passed earlier this year.

That’s the preliminary conclusion by Gov. Tina Kotek’s office, which in recent weeks asked state agencies to crunch the numbers for what the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act might mean for their ability to provide services.

The results are stark. As various facets of the bill roll out in staggered fashion in coming years, Kotek’s office says that Oregon will lose out on nearly $11.7 billion that currently funds health care through the Oregon Health Plan.

And the state’s Department of Human Services expects $3 billion to disappear that helps low-income Oregonians afford food via the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.

With tight state tax revenues unable to fill the gap, the pullback of federal money means Oregonians who rely on these services are likely to be cut off, Kotek said Monday.

“The Trump Administration and Republicans in Congress have betrayed American children and families, who will become sicker, hungrier, and less prosperous because of President Trump’s budget bill,” she said in a statement. “Oregonians will see less of their federal tax dollars coming back to our state for things they count on.”

The new analysis is the most complete picture yet of how Oregon’s ability to provide services could be impacted by Trump’s bill. The legislation, heralded by the GOP as a major victory, was opposed by all of Oregon’s congressional delegation except U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz, the lone Republican.

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But the reduction in federal money is just one factor Kotek and other top policy makers are having to consider.

Beyond impacting direct federal payments, an analysis released last month suggests that tax cut provisions within the bill will eat into Oregon’s state revenues by nearly $1 billion during the current budget, which began July 1. That’s because the state uses federal taxable income as a beginning point when calculating what residents owe in state taxes. Majority Democrats are considering changing that in order to avoid budget impacts.

And there are worries the state’s budget picture could soon sour even more. Weak job market data and other economic factors could lead state economists to rethink their revenue projections, potentially prompting belt-tightening in next year’s short legislative session. The state’s next revenue forecast is scheduled for Aug. 27.

“I am going to work with Oregon lawmakers and community partners to do all that we can to stand up for Oregonians and get through this needless, callous hardship,” Kotek said in Monday’s release. “I will continue to hold the line and push back as Oregon values are under threat.”

Federal funding makes up roughly a third of the state’s two-year budget, but the decreases agencies anticipate in the current budget are relatively small. The state’s analysis suggests that around $1 billion of the roughly $44 billion in federal money lawmakers have budgeted could go away. The 2025-27 Oregon budget totals roughly $139 billion.

Those impacts are expected to ramp up in the years to come. Kotek’s analysis predicts a federal funding reduction of $5.8 billion in the 2027-29 budget, and $8.4 billion in 2029-31.

Much of the impact centers on the Oregon Health Plan, the state’s version of Medicaid. The federal spending bill signed into law by President Trump last month institutes new work requirements for nearly 600,000 people who enrolled in the program under expansions set forth in the Affordable Care Act.

“Projected coverage loss due to these requirements could be significant, with estimates suggesting that between 100,000 and 200,000 Oregonians will lose OHP coverage due to challenges demonstrating compliance with new requirements,” the state’s analysis reads. That will put added strain on health care providers like hospitals, which will be forced to provide uncompensated care to people in dire need.

The bill also requires enrollees to be screened to ensure they qualify every six months, as opposed to every two years under Oregon’s current program.

All of the new red tape is likely to reduce benefits to Oregonians by more than $500 million in each of the next two budget cycles, according to the Oregon Health Authority.

The state expects to lose billions more from provisions that slash the amount the state can levy in “provider taxes,” assessments paid by health care providers that are used to leverage more federal Medicaid payments.

Further limits to how much the federal government will pay for some health services, including those for immigrants, prompt state officials to conclude the health program will be “significantly destabilized” in years to come.

“Due to the changes in eligibility and funding for services, there will be a significant decline in Medicaid members accessing benefits,” the analysis said.

Oregon’s ability to feed low-income residents is also slated to see major headwinds under the federal bill.

The analysis released by Kotek suggests that Oregon’s share of federal funding for SNAP will be reduced by almost $3 billion in coming years.

That’s the result of a new policy forcing states with high payment error rates under SNAP — like Oregon — to foot the bill for 15% of benefits paid out. Prior to the Big Beautiful Bill, the federal government had paid 100% of SNAP benefits.

Oregon will also be saddled with higher costs for administering the program — 75% of the full amount, rather than the previous 50%.

At the same time, fewer people are likely to qualify for food assistance when changes take effect. The bill created work requirements that may apply to roughly 310,000 adults that now get assistance. And many people who are not U.S. citizens but are in the country legally will become ineligible, a change that officials say will impact about 3,000 residents.

“The bottom line is these budget cuts will reduce food aid for families, children, older adults, Tribal communities, and immigrants; take food off people’s tables; place unsustainable financial burdens on the state; jeopardize the well-being of Oregonians, hurt local food businesses and farmers, and lead to lower economic activity and tax revenue in Oregon,” an analysis said.

SNAP and Medicaid comprise by far the largest funding impacts from Trump’s bill, but not the only ones.

A long-planned project that will widen Interstate 5 through Portland’s Rose Quarter and construct a cap over the freeway is now in jeopardy, after most of a $450 million federal grant was eliminated by the bill.

The state anticipates losing millions more in federal grants that help fund the state library and pay for employees in the Oregon Department of Forestry.

News Source : https://www.opb.org/article/2025/08/11/oregon-braces-impacts-trump-budget-cuts-billions-federal-money/