New poll is the largest nonpartisan gauge of likely voters to date in this election cycle

Sept. 30, 2026 – In a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor in more than four decades, Oregon voters are roughly split between incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan just five weeks ahead of the November election, according to a new poll conducted on behalf of Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB).

The poll, conducted by DHM Research for OPB, surveyed 915 likely voters in the Nov. 3 election, making it the largest nonpartisan poll to date in the race. Voters were contacted by telephone and text from Sept. 17-27.

If the election for Oregon’s next governor were held today, 47% said they supported Drazan once undecided voters were asked which candidate they were leaning toward. 46% said they would support Kotek. Drazan’s lead over Kotek is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.24 percentage points, making it a statistical tie. The share of voters who said they are unsure who they’ll vote for is smaller than in earlier polls.

READ THE OPB NEWS STORY FOR FULL POLL RESULTS AND CONTEXT HERE.

Kotek as unpopular as Trump, poll shows

The poll results provide other revealing insights on the mood of the Oregon electorate, including that a similar majority of likely voters have a negative impression of Kotek and President Donald Trump: 60% have a negative impression of Kotek, compared to 63% for Trump, within the poll’s margin of error.

The new poll also gauged voters’ preferences in Southwest Washington’s 3rd Congressional district, which includes Vancouver. The winner of the race between incumbent Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican state Sen. John Braun may help determine who controls the U.S. House of Representatives. Trump endorsed Braun, and the race has been among the most closely watched races in the country. Look for coverage of those results tomorrow, Thursday, Oct. 1, at opb.org.

“OPB’s mission is to connect people in Oregon and Southwest Washington through fact-driven journalism. Providing essential context on the political landscape is central to our public service role, which is why we’re invested in exploring where voters stand during this pivotal midterm election cycle,” said Jason Potts, OPB’s senior vice president and chief content officer. “As always, we’re grateful to OPB members whose sustained support makes our journalism possible.”

OPB election coverage and events

The new poll and related news stories are part of OPB’s extensive coverage of the midterm elections in Oregon and Southwest Washington, which includes:

• Today, Wed., Sept. 30: OPB’s “Politics Now” podcast, Live in Beaverton: Join OPB journalists and special guests for a live taping that will take a closer look at the 2026 midterm elections. Get details and tickets for the 7 p.m. event at the Patricia Reser Center for the Arts here.
• Tues., Oct. 20: OPB’s “Politics Now” podcast, Live in Corvallis. Get details and tickets for the 7 p.m. event at the Patricia Valian Reser Center for the Creative Arts here.
• Online: Follow OPB’s politics coverage at opb.org/politics, including in-depth interviews to come with Drazan and Kotek and additional coverage of Oregon statewide and local midterm elections and the 3rd Congressional district race in Southwest Washington.

For journalists:

OPB politics reporters are available to break down the new poll results and their significance. To arrange an interview, please contact Becky Brun at [email protected] or 541-399-6813.

News Source : https://www.opb.org/pressroom/oregon-governors-race-remains-tight-with-share-of-undecideds-shrinking-according-to-new-opb-commissioned-poll/